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Note: Computer projections are from USA Today
3A East
Computer favorite: Stephen Decatur
Contenders: Stephen Decatur, Centennial, Hammond
Upset pick: No. 2 Glenelg over No. 1 Centennial in the Section 1 finals
Sleeper: No. 2 Glenelg
Potential games to watch:
No. 2 Glenelg at No. 1 Centennial in the Section 1 finals (season series split at 1-1)
No. 2 Hammond at No. 1 Stephen Decatur in the Section 2 finals (top-10 ranked Hammond going head-to-head with East Coast power, Stephen Decatur, who currently holds a 20-2 record)
No. 1 Centennial at No. 2 Hammond in the Region championship
Computer projected region championship: No. 1 Stephen Decatur (-10) over No. 1 Centennial
3A West
Computer favorite: Linganore
Contenders: Linganore, Seneca Valley, Tuscarora
Upset pick: No. 6 Thomas Johnson over No. 2 Tuscarora in the Section 2 semifinals OR No. 3 Oakdale over No. 1 Seneca Valley in the Section 1 finals
Sleeper: No. 2 Oakdale
Potential games to watch:
No. 6 Thomas Johnson at No. 2 Tuscarora in the Section 2 semifinals (last seeded Thomas Johnson has come close not once, but twice in both regular season games to knocking off No. 2 seed Tuscarora. Tuscarora held on to win 67-66 the first time and won a buzzer-beater, 51-50 just a week ago)
No. 2 Oakdale at No. 1 Seneca Valley in the Section 1 regional finals (though Seneca Valley has won 12 of its last 13 game are red hot going into the playoffs, I see this one being a barn-burner and a game that Oakdale may come out victorious)
No. 2 Tuscarora at No. 1 Linganore in the Section 2 finals (two intra-county state title contenders going head-to-head in the Section 2 finals sounds like a good bid to me. Season series split at 1-1)
No. 1 Seneca Valley at No. 1 Linganore in the Region championship (is this another Frederick-Montgomery rivalry brewing? Linganore knocked off Seneca Valley a year ago in the basketball region championship, while Seneca Valley returned the favor in the football regional semifinals. Potential host Linganore would carry a 29-2 record their last 31 games dating back to last year while Seneca Valley would potentially hold a 14-1 record their last 15 games. Sounds like a classic in the making to me)
No. 2 Oakdale at No. 1 Linganore in the Region championship (OK. Even though Oakdale has a sub-500 record and Linganore has a near unblemished 21-1 record heading into the playoffs, this one would go down as one to remember. Separated by just a handful of miles apart, these two schools have formulated one of the most heated rivalries in all of Maryland. Oakdale has had Linganore’s number the past couple of years, winning 6 of the last 8 contests, with Linganore winning the most previous two. But only by a combined 9 points. I’d look forward to seeing this one)
Computer projected region championship: No. 1 Linganore (-6) over No. 1 Seneca Valley
3A North
Computer favorite: Baltimore Poly
Contenders: Baltimore Poly, Frederick Douglass-B, C.Milton Wright, Dundalk, Woodlawn
Upset pick: No. 4 City over No. 1 Frederick Douglass-B in Section 1 semifinals
Sleeper: No. 4 City
Potential games to watch:
No. 3 Baltimore Poly at No. 1 Frederick Douglass-B in Section 1 finals (a nice story-line: top-seeded Frederick Douglass-B [18-1] squaring off with Baltimore City champs, Poly)
No. 4 Baltimore City at No. 3 Baltimore Poly in Section 1 finals (the most heated rivalry in all of Baltimore, and one of the most well-known rivalries across the state, a third round between these two would produce quite the fireworks)
Computer projected region championship: No. 3 Baltimore Poly (-8) over No. 1 C.M. Wright
3A South
Computer favorite: Huntingtown
Contenders: Huntingtown, Blake, Magruder
Upset pick: No. 3 Oxon Hill over No. 1 Huntingtown in the Sectional 2 finals
Sleeper: No. 3 Oxon Hill
Potential games to watch:
No. 2 Magruder at No. 1 Blake in the Section 1 finals (season series split at 1-1)
No. 3 Oxon Hill at No. 1 Huntingtown in the Section 2 finals
Computer projected region championship: No. 1 Huntingtown (-6) over No. 1 Blake
3A Power Rankings
- Baltimore Poly (North)
- Linganore (West)
- Stephen Decatur (East)
- Baltimore City (North)
- C.M. Wright (North)
- Seneca Valley (West)
- Hammond (East)
- Huntingtown (South)
- Oxon Hill (South)
- Frederick Douglass-B (North)
Projected 3A semifinals: Linganore (-2) over Stephen Decatur AND Baltimore Poly (-11) over Huntingtown
Projected 3A state championship: Baltimore Poly (-4) over Linganore
McFadden’s take: If I had to choose a favorite that would win it all, it would be Baltimore City product, Poly. And the computer agrees.
Led by heavily recruited Division-1 prospect, wing De’Vondre Perry (6-foot-6 C/O 2017), the Engineers go into the playoffs scorching hot without losing a game in over a month and a half. Around Perry is standout point guard Christian Chong-Qui, dynamic guard Demetrius Mims and lock-down post defender, 6-foot-8 Jordan Jones. This Poly team that was bounced in the early going a season ago to Baltimore rival, City, is primed to make a serious bid at towards a state championship in mid-March.
However, as the No. 3 seed, Poly will have to go through a tall order if they want to attain the feat. Potential dates with Baltimore County runner-up, Woodlawn; top-seeded Frederick Douglass-B; and intra-city rival, Baltimore City could stand in their way from capturing a state title.
Down in the South, it’s a bit of a tossup. Former 4A Montgomery powers, Blake and Magruder, have bumped down and will wrestle with Oxon Hill or Huntingtown for a state tournament appearance.
Over in the Wild West, there are plentiful of games that provide intriguing upside. After coming off of a breakthrough campaign a year ago, seasoned Linganore, who possesses four-year varsity starter Thomas Lang, and three other three-year varsity starters, Carter Schmidt, Jack Staub and Keegan Lane, will carry the most experienced lineup in the state as the favorite in this region.
But they are not too far out in front as the formidable Tuscarora, who nabbed them once this year are right on the Lancers heels. Peaking Seneca Valley that has won 12 of their last 13 have found the mojo at a timely state in the season and have set themselves up nicely to make a deep playoff run.
And even though Clay Conner, Jared Ruiz or Zach Thomas is not on their roster, Oakdale has all the goods lined up to make their fourth straight appearance in the state tournament.
Centennial, Hammond and Stephen Decatur will vie for a trip to Xfinity Center in the East.
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