Games to watch
First round
4A North semifinals: Northwest (8-2, 9.70) at Churchill (9-1, 10.50), Friday at 7
Massey prediction: Northwest, 35-28 (65 percent chance of winning)
My prediction: Churchill, 36-35
Maryland Gatorade Player of the Year candidate Michael Janis and his Bulldogs play host to the Jaguars of Northwest, gunning to avenge a down-to-the-wire loss in the regular season. The Week 6 meeting was gridlocked through three quarters before the Jags put away Janis’ Bulldogs with a 12-point fourth quarter. Janis, the quarterback with 27 total touchdowns and 2,294 all-purpose yards, looks to keep Churchill’s breakthrough season alive with an upset win. Northwest, meanwhile, will need to live another week if they want its hand at revenge against Quince Orchard in the region final.
3A North semifinals: No. 20 Franklin (8-2, 9.52) at No. 23 Milford Mill (9-1, 10.80), Friday at 7
Massey prediction: Franklin, 26-21 (59 percent chance of winning)
My prediction: Milford Mill, 27-20
Oh boy, what a Round 1 matchup we have here. These two teams have the second and third best odds to go on and win the state title and they so happen to tussle out of the postseason gate. In their regular season meeting, Milford Mill outlasted Franklin in double overtime, 19-13. Milford Mill also beat Franklin the 2017 regular season, 26-21, apart of a 12-game win streak that landed them in the 3A title game (lost to Linganore, 28-27). However, Franklin is the computer favorite this time around. The Indians hung with private power DeMatha earlier in the season, only losing 27-14, and have outscored teams by 30 in their eight wins. Milford Mill, meanwhile, is only two weeks removed from a 28-7 loss to 3A North top seed Dundalk and eager to relinquish the pain of squandering a 19-point halftime lead in last year’s title game.
3A North semifinals: Edgewood (9-1, 9.25) at Dundalk (9-1, 10.80), Friday at 7
Massey prediction: Dundalk, 28-27 (52 percent chance of winning)
My prediction: Edgewood, 35-28
Like the Franklin-Milford Mill matchup, this one pits two teams with decent state title chances. Unlike the other 3A North semifinal game, though, Dundalk and Edgewood rarely meet up. Matter of fact, there is no historical evidence the two have met each other in the past decade. The Owls are no stranger to big games. They went to the 3A title game in 2015 and toppled Milford Mill by 21 two weeks ago. Edgewood, on the other hand, flies under the radar with one of the best athletes in the state in Maryland commit Deonte Banks.
2A North semifinals: No. 7 Oakdale (9-0, 10.59) at No. 25 Liberty (10-0, 10.60), Friday at 7
Massey prediction: Oakdale, 36-14 (91 percent chance of winning)
My prediction: Oakdale, 49-7
This is the only Round 1 matchup featuring two undefeated teams. While Oakdale is heavily favored, Liberty hosts and the Lions’ grass field, with rain in the forecast, could make it closer than the three-score spread. Winner is a virtual lock to play at Damascus for the 2A title, the bearer of the nation’s longest win streak and three straight titles.
1A West semifinals: Boonsboro (8-2, 7.84) at Catoctin (9-1, 9.30), Friday at 7
Massey prediction: Catoctin, 35-34 (51 percent chance of winning)
Catoctin beat Boonsboro 26-14 in the regular season and three of the previous four meetings to that point were decided by one score. Expect another close one Friday night.
Potential second round matchups
2A West final: No. 7 Oakdale at No. 5 Damascus
The bearer of three straight state titles and the nation’s longest win streak (52 games) versus Maryland’s hottest bunch? (Oakdale starters have outscored teams 380-7 in 20 quarters). Reserve your tickets now.
3A North final: No. 20 Franklin or No. 23 Milford Mill vs. Dundalk or Edgewood
Any team from this region has a shot. Either way this 3A North title game will be fun.
4A East final: No. 22 North Point at No. 19 Broadneck
North Point beat Broadneck in this game last year, 38-22, to reach the 4A semis. If they happen to meet again, both will be undefeated and be the top seed in the semifinals.
4A South final: No. 17 Flowers at No. 8 Wise
The computers favor Wise at 95 percent but if this matchup happens Flowers and its unblemished record could test the Pumas, who are hunting for a fourth straight title.
Potential third round matchups
4A semifinal: No. 13 Quince Orchard at No. 18 Paint Branch
Not often do you see two intra-county opponents square off with a shot to get to the title game. Quince Orchard beat Paint Branch 24-8 in the regular season and has won the last eight meetings. The last time the Panthers topped the Cougars was in 2002. In the hotbed of private school football, Paint Branch coach Michael Nesmith has worked tirelessly to keep his program relevant, while Quince Orchard coach John Kelley is trying to finally win a title after two straight years of coming runner-up. Something has to give.
Potential state championship matchups
4A: No. 8 Wise vs. No. 13 Quince Orchard
A Cougars-Pumas trilogy would be good for the high school football scene, and the computer says there’s a 62 percent of that happening. Wise has beat Quince Orchard the past two years, with last season’s clash coming down to the fourth quarter. The Pumas are trying to win their fourth straight title, which would tie Urbana (1998-2001) and Fort Hill (2013-16) for the most consecutive football titles in Maryland history. The Cougars, meanwhile, are trying to get over the hump and fulfill a feeling of destiny in their first season since the passing of Tyler Terry, a senior linebacker on last year’s state runner-up team who died unexpectedly over the summer.
3A: No. 14 Linganore vs. No. 20 Franklin or No. 23 Milford Mill
Linganore vs. Baltimore-area teams has turned into a series worth following over the past decade. In 2013, Franklin beat Linganore for the 3A title in what played out to be a spirited contest. The Lancers have whipped Edgewood the past two years in the regular season and in last year’s 3A title game, they surged from 19 points behind to upend Milford Mill for a frenzied 28-27 win. Either matchup, Linganore vs. Franklin or Linganore vs. Milford Mill, will present plenty of storylines.
2A: No. 7 Oakdale vs. No. 24 Glenelg
The past few years have been dominated by Maryland football blue bloods. Fort Hill’s four straight titles. Wise’s three straight. Damascus’ three straight. Dunbar winning its 10th. But, did someone whisper new state champion? Oakdale and Glenelg, which have never won football championships before, have a 47 percent chance of meeting up in the 2A title game and are a combined 19-0. Both sides have Division I talent and would put on a heckuva show.
1A: No. 16 Dunbar vs. No. 21 Fort Hill
This would be a rematch of last year’s 1A title, a game Dunbar narrowly won, 30-26, and fifth state title meeting the past 13 years with four of those matchups coming down to one score. While both are historically rich, churning out NFL and college football stars and combing for 16 state titles, they contrast systematically and geographically. Dunbar, from Baltimore City, is known for its athleticism and speed. Fort Hill, from countryside Cumberland, wins with country boys up front and a run-heavy approach. And they’re bound to meet again (83 percent chance, according to Massey Ratings).
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